19FortyFive reports that Former Putin speechwriter-turned-political commentator Abbas Gallyamov predicted in January that Putin would face a coup within the following year.
The concept of a “coup d’état,” which translates to “stroke of state,” is seizing and displacing an existing government from power. It is usually done by opposing political groups, rebel forces, or top military officials.
Francisco Franco, Napoleon Bonaparte, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, and Hosni Mubarak have all suffered a “stroke of state.”
Vladimir Putin might soon be the latest addition to the list.
Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine would have cemented his status as the new Stalin — a man of steel hellbent on recreating the Soviet Union. Fortunately for the Ukrainian people, his plans didn’t pan out.
It’s becoming worse in Russia, Gallyamov remarked. As more and more bodies are brought back to Russia, the country’s citizens will face increasing hardships and will look for answers, eventually concluding, “Well, this is because an old tyrant, an old dictator, governs our country.”
That’s all it takes for a coup.
As far as his top generals are concerned, Putin is already a “second-rate dictator.”
There is no way to tell who is currently conspiring behind the scenes, as everyone who would be suspected would already be in a gulag or, more likely, dead along with their entire families. Despots and dictators prevent any form of opposition from taking root.
In early November, many outsiders began reporting on cracks among the Russian political elite. Most of these sources highlight the growing power of two dictators: Ramzan Kadyrov, a former guerrilla who was appointed by the Kremlin as leader of Chechnya, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner and commander of the Wagner mercenary army (a paramilitary force of around 37,000 people, including more than 11,500 convicted criminals, illegally released from the Russian prisons).
Most recent coup d’états have failed.
Perhaps Prigozhin is the one in a million who can see the big picture. His secret army and connections within the Kremlin would quickly destroy Putin’s stooges if he attempted to grab power.
Russia’s political future can only go one of two ways: Putin will be toppled by elite groupings, or the current system will consolidate and become even more dictatorial.
Putin’s successor will only get one shot at this.