At a Glance
- Republicans now outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters in Florida
- 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Florida support Trump
- Gov. Ron DeSantis won Miami-Dade County in 2022, first Republican in 20 years
- Economy and inflation are key issues driving Hispanic voters to the GOP
- 54% of Cuban Americans in Florida are registered Republicans
The Red Wave in Miami-Dade
The political landscape in Florida’s Miami-Dade County has undergone a seismic shift. Once a Democratic stronghold, the county has seen a surge in Republican support, particularly among Hispanic voters. This transformation isn’t just a local phenomenon; it’s a trend that’s reshaping Florida’s status as a major swing state.
The numbers tell a compelling story. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade County by over 290,000 votes. Fast forward to 2020, and Joe Biden’s margin of victory in the county shrank to just 85,000 votes. Then came the watershed moment in 2022 when Governor Ron DeSantis became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in two decades to win Miami-Dade County.
🚨🚨Republicans Flip Miami-Dade🚨🚨 We are witnessing a seismic shift in Miami-Dade County politics, with Republicans outpacing Democrats in voter turnout, driven by a 20-point lead in early voting.
This surge is fueled by the incredible enthusiasm behind Donald Trump,…
— Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera (@KMCabreraFL) October 24, 2024
The Cuban American Factor
At the heart of this political shift are Cuban American voters. Predominantly residing in South Florida, they wield significant influence in Miami-Dade County’s political landscape. A staggering 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Florida now support former President Donald Trump, marking a substantial increase from previous elections.
“Most of the Cuban Americans in the United States live in Florida, and most of the Cuban Americans in Florida reside in the South Florida region,” wrote Florida International University in describing one of its recent polls.
This trend extends beyond presidential politics. In the Florida U.S. Senate race, 50% of Cuban Americans support Republican incumbent Rick Scott. The data paints a clear picture: 54% of Cuban Americans in Florida are now registered Republicans, with older, Cuba-born individuals tending to be more conservative.
Economic Concerns Driving the Shift
What’s behind this dramatic shift? The economy and inflation top the list of concerns for Cuban Americans and other Hispanic voters in Florida. Many express low approval ratings for President Biden’s handling of these issues. Statewide, Florida Hispanics are worried about inflation, jobs, and affordable housing.
These economic concerns have translated into significant electoral gains for Republicans. In the 2020 presidential election, Florida had the highest percentage of Hispanic voters supporting Trump compared to other states. This trend has only accelerated since then.
A Statewide Republican Surge
The Republican gains in Miami-Dade County are part of a broader statewide trend. Governor Ron DeSantis’ 2022 victory marked a significant shift, flipping several counties from blue to red. The numbers are stark: registered Republicans in Florida now outnumber Democrats by over one million voters.
“Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000 – and Florida had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats in its history. Now, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters, which is a sea change that few thought possible,” said Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
This shift is evident in voting patterns as well. Early voting data shows more Republicans voting in person, while more Democrats vote by mail in Miami-Dade County. Over 1.9 million Floridians have voted early in person, with similar numbers voting by mail.
The Republican gains among Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County are not just a local phenomenon. They represent a significant realignment in Florida’s political landscape, potentially transforming the state from a key battleground into a Republican stronghold. As we approach future elections, all eyes will be on Florida to see if this trend continues or if Democrats can regain their footing among Hispanic voters.
