(PresidentialWire.com)- A new poll from the Trafalgar Group, the only polling organization that predicted a Donald Trump win on the final day of the campaign in 2016, shows that the president is leading the Democratic presidential nominee in Ohio.
The poll comes amidst a slew of other polls showing Biden with a huge national lead over President Donald Trump. With its history in accurately predicting the impact of the Shy Trump vote, however, the news from Trafalgar Group will no doubt be welcomed by the Trump campaign.
In a Twitter post, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, said that polling from between October 1 and 3 shows President Trump with a substantial lead over former Vice President Joe Biden.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #Ohio #BattlegroundState #poll conducted Oct 1-3 shows a Trump lead:
3.6% Und. See Report: https://t.co/4Hmx4Mcj4L pic.twitter.com/og3Wk8IRWd
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 5, 2020
The survey asked 1,035 likely voters who they would be supporting in the November election. It stands in contrast to many other polls that simply ask registered voters, which often gives inaccurate results. It is always possible that registered voters simply don’t turn up to vote on the day, while likely voters have already decided that they intend to turn out.
Most other polls have shown that Democrat Joe Biden is ahead in Ohio, just one of several key swing states that the media is watching closely in 2020.
Back in 2016, Ohio was considered a sure bet for Democrat Hillary Clinton. The Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute suggested that Clinton was ahead in the state by some 10 points, but President Donald Trump went on to win the state handsomely.
Trump took 51.3% of the vote in Ohio compared to Clinton’s 43.2%.
While it doesn’t mean that the state is a sure win for President Trump, historical polls do suggest that pollsters frequently get these things wrong – particularly when it comes to support for President Donald Trump.
The so-called “Shy Trump” vote could well be playing a part in the polling done throughout the country and even in Ohio. If the Trafalgar Group is right, and if the Shy Trump vote exists, then the president may well even be on track for an even bigger lead than four percentage points.