(PresidentialWire.com)- Taiwan’s top intelligence service describes a Chinese invasion as “impossible.”
Chen Ming-tong, the director-general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, told lawmakers in Taipei this Thursday that it was highly improbable that the Chinese Communist Party planned any risky military operations in a year when “stability” was Xi Jinping’s priority. “Stability” was an oft-repeated buzzword.
During a defense committee meeting, Chen was asked several times about letters written by an anonymous analyst working with Russia’s Federal Security Service.
The whistleblower, known by the pseudonym “Wind of Change,” said that Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine thwarted Beijing’s plans for an invasion of Taiwan. The whistleblower said that Xi wanted to annex Taiwan and throw China into turmoil to ensure and justify an unprecedented third term at the CCP’s 20th National Congress later this year.
Taiwan’s spy chief calls poppycock.
Such a move, he believes, wouldn’t guarantee victory and would be at odds with the party’s stability mantra. Chen Ming-tong also theorized that the purported FSB leaks were simply disinformation created by the Kremlin. Chen called them “psychological operations.”
“That’s Russian cognitive warfare,” he added.
China has witnessed the lack of an upside in Russia’s war against Ukraine, further making the possibility of a Taiwan invasion remote.
Chen’s overall estimation is that attack is highly implausible; indeed, nothing like what the spy leak describes, the authenticity of which is unknown.
Chen believes Beijing is too busy to consider moving in on Taiwan. They’ve had a resurgence of COVID, which caused an economic slowdown, which would dampen a post-pandemic recovery. There is just too much going on.
Chen echoed his October 2021 analysis that barring a “major contingency,” a Chinese campaign to annex Taiwan wasn’t probable for the remainder of President Tsai Ing-wen’s term, which comes to a close in May 2024.
Asked when Beijing might ever trigger a war, Chen said the offensive cannot be ruled out and would likely start for political reasons at a more favorable time for China’s President Xi Jinping.
The “Wind of Change” papers have garnered much interest in the West, mainly on Twitter, where the purported FBS insider detailed turmoil inside Russia’s intelligence services. The claim is that Russian intelligence wasn’t told of Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine.
That’s a curious claim used by cynics of Winds of Change to question their authenticity.