Stacy Abram’s Chances Are Looking Poorer And Poorer

( In almost every poll, the incumbent Republican governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, is shown to have a considerable advantage over his Democratic challenger.

Democrats are beginning to feel a growing sense of panic around the election.

Democrats in Georgia have become increasingly pessimistic about the chances of Stacey Abrams unseating Governor Brian Kemp from office. They point to Abrams’s struggles to rally critical parts of her party’s coalition and her inability to appeal to a slice of moderate Republican voters who have the potential to decide the state’s elections.

Polls conducted publicly and privately have shown that she is behind Mr. Kemp, a Republican who is running for a second term in office. And it is a particularly problematic indicator for Ms. Abrams that polls suggest she is receiving less support than the other high-profile Democrat who is running for office, Senator Raphael Warnock, who is running for his first full term in office.

The gap between her and the other Democrats is relatively tiny (inside the margin of error in some recent polls) but can be as large as ten points (in other polls), demonstrating how difficult things have been for her. Democratic voters cherish her, but she has lost some ground with Black men, who supplied critical support in her close loss to Mr. Kemp in 2018.

Despite this, she is popular among Democratic voters. And while Mr. Warnock receives some support from Republican moderates, Ms. Abrams — who has been demonized more by the G.O.P. than any other statewide figure — has shown little sign of peeling off significant numbers of disaffected Republicans. This contrasts with Mr. Warnock, who receives some support from Republican conservatives.

Ms. Abrams’s position, in which she trails Mr. Kemp in surveys by a steady margin of approximately five percentage points, has frightened Democrats who have hailed her as the master strategist responsible for Georgia’s transition to the Democratic party.

If this is being reported in the New York Times, then you already know that things are not looking well for Abrams.

The Democrats were unprepared for how difficult this contest would be, and as a result, they may lose it.