A new study warns that as little as 0.25°C of additional deep-ocean warming could trigger the irreversible collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, potentially causing catastrophic sea-level rise across the globe.
At a Glance
- Researchers say 0.25°C of deep ocean warming could destabilize West Antarctica’s ice sheet
- The West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise sea levels by 4 meters over centuries
- A Science Advances study predicts up to 1 meter of sea-level rise by 2100 due to Antarctic melt
- Recent heatwaves in East Antarctica highlight the continent’s climate sensitivity
- Once collapse begins, melt processes may become self-sustaining and irreversible
West Antarctica on the Brink
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet rests on land below sea level, making it extremely vulnerable to warm ocean currents. As ice shelves weaken, so-called “grounding lines” retreat, and glacial flow accelerates. Scientists warn that marine ice sheet instability and processes like hydrofracturing could lead to runaway collapse—regardless of future surface cooling.
If these thresholds are breached, even aggressive emissions cuts may not prevent long-term sea-level impacts.
Global Flood Potential
The potential sea-level rise varies depending on the timeline:
- By 2100, melting may contribute up to 3 feet (1 meter) globally, with higher regional effects
- Over centuries, a full West Antarctic collapse could add 4 meters
- In a complete meltdown scenario—including East Antarctica—sea levels could eventually rise over 50 meters
These projections highlight both immediate and long-term threats to coastal cities, infrastructure, and global climate stability.
Cascading Consequences
Beyond flooding, melting Antarctic ice alters ocean salinity and circulation. The influx of freshwater could disrupt systems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), potentially affecting weather patterns, monsoons, and agricultural zones across the Northern Hemisphere.
The stakes are not just coastal—they are planetary.
The Time to Act Is Now
This new research intensifies calls for rapid climate action. Stabilizing ocean temperatures and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are critical to avoiding irreversible tipping points. While the most extreme outcomes may unfold over centuries, scientists stress that the decisions made this decade will determine the future of Earth’s ice, coasts, and climate equilibrium.
