A well-known political forecaster announced his prediction for the 2024 presidential election in November, updating his model since the Democrats changed candidates.
Professor Allan Lichtman is sometimes referred to as the “Nostradamus” presidential election predictions. Since the reelection of President Ronald Reagan in 1984, the American University professor has accurately predicted the result of almost every election.
Lichtman uses a rather complicated model to make his predictions, which he had to update after the sudden withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the race and Biden’s subsequent endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him as the Democratic Party’s nominee. The model looks at thirteen different “keys,” or factors, that determine the likelihood of a candidate winning the Oval Office, and his latest projection shows Harris is heading toward a win.
With Election Day less than 100 days away, Harris and her campaign have been making a last-minute push to sway voters, and the Democratic Party has seen a boost in enthusiasm since Biden stepped aside. A recent rally in Atlanta drew a crowd of thousands, despite previous polls indicating Harris to be the most unpopular vice president in modern American history. Her approval ratings have also gone up.
The model employed by Lichtman weighs the thirteen key factors against the current administration’s party, which is, of course, run by the same party as Harris. Although his current assessment shows Harris appears more favorably in most of the keys, he said he will not make his final prediction until later this month, “after the Democratic convention.” Lichtman stressed that his current assessment is based on where the keys of his model “stand NOW.”
Some of the factors Harris is leading include not having to have a primary challenger, little to no threat from any third-party candidates that could attract prospective voters, as well as no major scandals or civil unrest.
Lichtman said Biden dropping out produced “a mixed result,” but did not fundamentally alter his original assessment that he believes “a lot would have to go wrong” for the Democratic Party to lose. Most polls still show Trump ahead, although the gap has been closing.
