Canada and Mexico are ramping up efforts this week to convince President Donald Trump’s administration that their enhanced border security measures and fentanyl crackdowns are effective, hoping to avoid steep 25% tariffs on their exports to the U.S.
With a March 4 deadline looming, both nations have already secured a temporary reprieve from tariffs that could disrupt North America’s tightly knit economy, and this week’s negotiations could determine if that suspension holds.
At a glance:
- Canada and Mexico face potential 25% U.S. tariffs on over $918 billion in exports, due by March 4.
- Both countries have bolstered border security, delaying tariffs that threatened autos, energy, and more.
- Mexico deploys 10,000 National Guard troops; Canada appoints a Fentanyl Czar and boosts spending by $913 million.
- Talks this week, backed by Homeland Security reports, will decide if Trump extends the tariff pause.
Negotiations Heat Up as Deadline Nears
With the clock ticking toward March 4, Canada and Mexico are pushing hard to prove their border security steps are working. Mexico has deployed up to 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border, a move Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum tied to an agreement that also urges the U.S. to curb firearm flows into Mexico. Meanwhile, Canada has named Kevin Brosseau as its Fentanyl Czar to lead anti-smuggling efforts, reclassified drug cartels as terrorist groups, and rolled out drones, helicopters, and surveillance tech along its vast U.S. border.
In December, Canada committed C$1.3 billion ($913 million) to border security, a response to Trump’s tariff threats. Dan Ujczo, a U.S.-Canada trade expert, noted, “There’s progress being made on the security front,” but cautioned that fully rescinding the tariffs might be a long shot without clear evidence of reduced migrant and fentanyl flows.
The stakes are high, as the threatened tariffs cover over $918 billion in U.S. imports from autos to energy. Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard called a recent meeting with Trump’s trade officials—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, economic adviser Kevin Hassett, and U.S. Trade Representative nominee Jamieson Greer—“constructive,” signaling joint efforts began Monday. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after a Saturday call with Trump discussing fentanyl trade, has vowed to “do the work” to avoid tariffs, while holding retaliatory measures on $107 billion in U.S. imports, like beer and orange juice, in reserve.
Broader Tariff Threats Loom
Trump’s tariff push doesn’t stop at borders. He’s raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%, scrapping exemptions for Canada and Mexico—major metal suppliers—effective March 12, and signaled 25% duties on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, plus “reciprocal” tariffs to match other nations’ rates. This flurry of actions, including a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, complicates border talks. White House officials point to Canada, Mexico, and China as fentanyl conduits, exploiting the “de minimis” loophole for packages under $800.
Though Trump ordered this exemption suspended, Ujczo said screening millions of daily express packages remains a challenge, with Customs and Border Protection’s next steps unclear. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s regular crisis reports to Trump and Congress will shape the outcome, but for now, the tariff threat lingers as a lever to enforce compliance.
