As the summer months of 2024 approach and near with each passing day, the upcoming presidential election draws nearer. Currently, the race has been forecast to be a “dead heat” with many polls showing the two contestants locked in a bitter contest. At the moment, the contest is likely to be a rematch of the 2020 affair between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden beat Trump decisively in 2020, crushing him with over 80 million votes Recent polls show Trump leading Biden in several key swing states, but other polls show a murkier picture. Ultimately, polls are often misleading, but the early numbers for Biden as the election approaches are not comforting. Among key Democratic voting demographics, major shifts have occurred in recent years. Latino voters, especially those comprising younger age groups, have overwhelmingly shifted to the “middle” and no longer vote consistently Democratic- but they are not flocking to the GOP, either.
It currently appears quite difficult to predict the upcoming election. Most polls are showing statistical ties, but things can change politically overnight. Recently, the New York post released a report detailing statistical surveys in seven swing states. In projected head to head matchups, Trump is leading Biden in states like Arizona (1 point lead), Georgia (3 point lead), Michigan (2 point lead), Nevada (9 point lead), North Carolina (8 point lead) and even Pennsylvania (3 point lead). But again, surveys are often inaccurate and public opinion in the United States has been quite fickle. The report, done by Cook, was released on May 23rd.
While Trump is quite unpopular and has demonstrated he possesses little to no ability to attract moderate voters and is likely reliant on a strong turnout from his fanatical base, Biden is also quite unpopular and continues to make verbal blunders in public. Recently, the President suggested while in Detroit, Michigan, that he was still serving as Vice President during the 2020 pandemic.
