Xavier Becerra, Biden’s former HHS Secretary tied to federal overreach and fiscal mismanagement, surges to the top of California’s chaotic governor primary—raising alarms for conservatives eyeing a blue state upset.
Story Snapshot
- Emerson poll shows Becerra at 19%, up 9 points since mid-April, leading Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer at 17% each in the June 2026 primary.
- Economy tops voter concerns at 42%, fueling frustration with liberal policies on spending, housing, and energy costs.
- High undecideds (12%) and fluid commitments (40% open to switching) keep the top-two primary race wide open amid GOP vote split.
- Democrats push last-minute voting strategies to block Republican sweep, delaying results in California’s mail-in system.
- Becerra dominates Democrats at 31%, but scrutiny mounts over his HHS and AG records as the race tightens.
Becerra’s Sudden Lead in Crowded Field
Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters from May 9-10, 2026. Xavier Becerra captured 19% support, a nine-point jump from mid-April. Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer each hold 17%. Katie Porter trails at 10%, Matt Mahan at 8%, with 12% undecided. Becerra’s rise marks the first time he tops an Emerson poll, driven by 31% among Democrats. This shift followed Eric Swalwell’s late April exit, consolidating Democratic votes behind the former HHS Secretary and Attorney General.
Economy Drives Voter Frustrations Across Lines
Forty-two percent of Californians rank the economy as the state’s top issue, ahead of housing affordability at 21%. High energy costs from renewable mandates and inflation from past overspending resonate with conservatives frustrated by liberal policies. Even liberals express discontent with growing divides and government failures. The poll highlights shared skepticism toward elites, as voters prioritize practical fixes over partisan agendas. Crime, healthcare, immigration, and democracy threats follow distantly.
GOP Split Threatens Top-Two Advancement
California’s top-two primary advances the top two candidates to November, regardless of party. Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco split conservative votes, stalling a potential sweep. Hilton’s support remains stagnant at 17%, with a loyal 73% definite base among over-50s and men. Democrats, holding 46% registration versus 24% GOP, strategize late mail voting to secure a spot. Activists fear a MAGA governor, echoing broader distrust in Sacramento’s handling of housing crises and border security.
Undecideds lean toward Becerra or Steyer, but 40% of decided voters remain open to switching. Mail ballots start soon, promising delayed counts and heightened ad wars from Silicon Valley-backed Mahan and Porter’s controversial spots.
Bombshell new California governor poll shows Xavier Becerra surge to the top https://t.co/E019OBbI6E pic.twitter.com/Uw5w6gzX3n
— New York Post (@nypost) May 13, 2026
Fluid Race Signals Deeper Government Distrust
Voter fluidity underscores fatigue with career politicians like Becerra, whose federal tenure coincided with rising healthcare costs and regulatory burdens. Hilton, a Newsom critic, appeals to those rejecting woke agendas and globalism. Steyer’s billionaire activism draws young voters but highlights elite influence. As Trump’s second term advances America First policies federally, Californians on both sides demand leaders focused on the American Dream over reelection games. Newsom stays unendorsed, amplifying uncertainty.
Sources:
California 2026 Poll: Becerra Continues to Surge, Steyer and Hilton Compete for Second Spot
Democrats are waiting until the last minute to pick a governor
Emerson April Poll (implied from research)
CalMatters on Swalwell and Becerra
