China is learning critical lessons from Western sanctions against Russia, shaping its strategy for a possible conflict over Taiwan.
At a Glance
- China is closely monitoring Western sanctions on Russia in preparation for potential action in Taiwan.
- An interagency group was formed by China to study sanction evasion techniques post-Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
- China’s strategy involves visiting Moscow frequently to assess the impact and methods to circumvent sanctions.
- China aims to fortify its economy against similar Western sanctions, deriving lessons from Russia’s experience.
Strategic Planning Through Observation
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China mobilized an interagency group to analyze the repercussions of Western sanctions on Russia. This initiative is driven by the need to prepare for a possible geopolitical situation involving Taiwan. By scrutinizing Russia’s methods for mitigating sanctions, China is developing plans that could help protect its economic interests. Russian intermediaries and trade with non-sanctioning nations have helped alleviate some sanctions’ effects, although Russia’s economy has suffered significantly overall.
Chinese officials are making frequent visits to Moscow, aiming to glean insights from Russia’s resilience. An unnamed source familiar with China’s outreach on sanctions mentioned that China is interested in practically everything from ways of circumventing sanctions to fostering domestic production. As part of its observations, China is learning to avoid missteps that Russia might have made in its approach to sanctions.
China Is Studying Russia’s Sanctions Evasion to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict—Officials report back to Beijing with lessons it can use in the event of war and Western penalties@georgikantchev @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/kDn0RLAPCahttps://t.co/kDn0RLAPCa
— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) December 1, 2024
Lessons from Russia’s Sanction ‘Sandbox’
The concept of using Russia as a “sandbox” or a testing ground for handling sanctions comes to the fore as part of China’s analysis. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, points out that “they know that if there is a Taiwan contingency, the tool kit that will be applied against them will be similar,” shedding light on the strategic depth of China’s initiatives. These maneuvers demonstrate China’s planning to minimize vulnerabilities against possible measures by the U.S. and its allies.
Russia has managed to use intermediaries and trade with nations not participating in the sanctions to mitigate some impacts. Nevertheless, challenges persist, with Russia’s central bank raising interest rates to stave off inflation, and Russian companies face additional strain from high rates and sanctions. China is cautious in its approach, learning from Russia’s mistakes, and aims to adapt through alternative trade and production strategies.
China Is Studying Russia’s Sanctions Evasion to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict — WSJ pic.twitter.com/5oDHdz0uLX
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) December 1, 2024
Future Implications
China’s study venture not only reflects preparation for a possible conflict but also highlights a broader trend among large authoritarian states. Experiences from recent years have seemingly reduced the fear of Western sanctions. China aims to ensure its economic cooperation with Russia might lessen future Western sanctions’ impact. While the research focus is on economic preparedness, some analysts predict a potential conflict over Taiwan could be on the horizon.
The strategic lessons stem from a calculated analysis of Russia’s experiences, serving as a guidepost for China’s own future economic and geopolitical strategies.
